For some reason, this post has been riding me for days. I’ve spent an inordinate amount of time on it but I can’t get it to where I’m happy with it. That’s normally a sign I haven’t thought things through. However, I can’t make myself toss it. So here it is, for better or worse. I will offer a full money back guarantee if you don’t like it.
I’m explicitly not providing a lot of links to the news items or opinion pieces that have led me here. This is partly because some of them are months old and difficult to find. Others are to paid subscription sources, so I can’t link to them.
I hope I can look back at this in 6 months and say “Boy, was I ever wrong!”
The Supply Chain
Our global, national and local supply chains remain under heavy stress. There are a number of causes, all of which can be traced back to our reactions to the Wuflu Scamdemic. A shortage of dock workers, truck drivers and warehouse workers. Surging demand from folks cooped up at home and awash with Free Money! Demand driven by the hopelessly frightened, who started doing everything remotely, from working to buying groceries. I do have to admit that it was really nice, driving on nearly deserted roads and shopping in nearly deserted stores. Those were the days.
Despite the belief that, if nothing else, the Free Money! would eventually run out and that people would have to leave their homes sometime, plus expectations that a weakening economy would reduce demand, it isn’t happening. Those things have happened, but, due in part to inflation and in part to concern about future events, demand is staying stubbornly high. You’ve heard me say things like “Buy it now because it will be more expensive next week.” “Shop like a Soviet.” “If you can find it, buy it now and buy extra.” “Stock up on beans, bullets and band aids.” When a sizable portion of the population does this, it has the effect of raising current demand by pulling those future purchases from the future to now. “Wars and rumors of wars” aren’t helping.
Worker shortages caused by everything from handing out free money to everyone + dog or people who have decided to check out of the system because they finally saw how rigged it is exacerbate the problems. Trucks don’t move without drivers and goods aren’t loaded/unloaded without forklift drivers. The goods they should be moving aren’t made without factory workers. Factories don’t get raw materials when those who produce or extract them are watching The Price is Right because they’re tired of working hard jobs for crappy money and the government will guarantee them enough to get by on. We’ve spent decades creating this unvirtuous circle and now we’re reaping the results of all that hard work.
As if that isn’t enough, there are signs that a demand collapse may be near. That would whip-saw transportation entities who have just ramped up for high demand with a sudden lack of demand for their services. Yeah, that’ll help things out.
No one likes it when the financial system they live under is anything less than stable. Perceived financial instability, whether it’s global, the nation you live in, your employer or your own-any of these make an observant person nervous. Seeing instability at multiple levels is enough to make that observant person really nervous. I don’t see a direction in which financial instability isn’t evident. Wuflu and our continuing over-reactions to it (Looking at you, China), money printing by everyone with a money printer that can go br-r-r, the Russia-Ukraine war and the sanctions and global financial realignments it’s caused-I see nothing out there that gives me a case of the warm fuzzies. I’m getting more of the cold clammies, like that cold and clammy hand that’s clutching my heart.
Wars and Rumors of Wars
Martin Armstrong recently said “The West needs World War III. They just need it.” He also said a lot of other interesting things if you have time to watch the video. But he’s right. His point is that the Global Resetters need this war to kick off that Reset, since everything they’ve tried so far has failed. But there are other players beside the Resetters, as noted by Peter Zeihan in this interview excerpt., It’s in the Neocons’ best interest to keep the war in Ukraine going for as long as possible in order to bleed Russia dry. That this will bleed Ukraine dry is an “unfortunate side effect” that they’re willing to tolerate to achieve that goal. If this war fails, there is always Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland. And Hungary, Romania, Moldova….
What I expect
I expect that life is going to get festive, entertaining, sporty and interesting, all at the same time. Gird up your loins.
The supply chain problems aren’t going to improve any time soon. We’re going to continue with the current problems until demand finally goes south, and then we’ll see different problems as transportation companies who spent big bucks to add capacity go bust because all that capacity isn’t needed. Knock-on effects will include broken/canceled equipment leases, laid-off employees and canceled orders for new equipment and facilities that suddenly aren’t needed any longer. I know-maybe they can pick up some business transporting weapons to the war zones!
The global financial system is starting to deform under the weight of increasing inflation, sanctions regimes and war costs. Barring an outbreak of peace and increased good sense, either or both of which seem unlikely, and it will deform until it fails. That will be a bad day.
Inflation is going up, up and up some more. The government says that US inflation is at 8.5%. That’s nice. Shadowstats is showing that number should be 15.5% (interestingly enough, the line is off the chart, which I’m sure is done for effect) using the 1990 calculation methodology and about 17% using the 1980 methodology. Peter Grant at Bayou Renaissance Man holds that the current number should be multiplied by 3 to 3 1/2 to get the oldest version, which would put inflation at 25.5-29.75%. As someone who lived through what’s now called the “Great Inflation”, I think that we’re closer to the Shadowstats number than Peter’s number, but that could change soon. We know the government lies (Covid, anyone?) and I expect them to start overtly lying about inflation as it continues to get worse. How long will it get worse and how bad will it get? I’d answer that question with a question: How long can the government continue to print money and how far can they debase the currency before it becomes functionally worthless?
Next, war. Don’t mistake the current lull in Ukraine for an end to the fight. This is just the end of Round 1. The Russians are up to something, and they have to win, or there will be regime change of the sort they don’t want. This war is going to heat back up and drag out-our elites will see to that by sending as many Javelin missiles as necessary. And while that happens, the risk of “someone” using nukes will increase. China’s level of involvement remains unclear at this time, but if they decide to jump in by invading Taiwan, all bets are off.
Toss in increased social unrest. This will occur for different reasons depending on where you happen to be. It’s already happening in Peru and Sri Lanka over inflation in energy and food prices. Expect that to expand to other “poor” nations in a hurry. As each domino falls, the pressure on those remaining will be higher and they will fail faster. Eventually it will work its way into “more prosperous” nations, but I don’t think it will get that bad in the First World. It will still be bad, but things will still be available, even if the price hurts any given individual badly. What I think we’ll see in the First World is fallout from previous poor decisions. Russia will suffer once the costs of their military tourism abroad becomes unsupportable and the folks at home get tired of flag-draped coffins and sons who simply never answer the phone again. In the US, I expect problems as we ramp up to the midterm elections. If the Republicans win as thoroughly as most expect, the left will make 2020 a pleasant memory in comparison. If they somehow don’t-again-then the left will be emboldened and will go after the right with renewed vigor and undisguised hatred. Either way, I think of low intensity armed fighting between left and right will happen at some point. How far we go down that road is anyone’s guess. Death squads, anyone?
Energy will become a problem. Foolish Green actions, such as shutting down nuclear power and gas/oil pipelines will be shown to be folly as sanctions regimes reshape global alliances and commerce. A lot of people are going to be too cold and too hot by turns as electricity is rationed, if by no other method than simple rolling blackouts. Honestly, I’ve been waiting for some sort of “BTU equivalent” energy rationing scheme that would include electricity, propane, natural gas, motor fuels, coal and even firewood. Yeah, that will be fun if it happens. However, there are some signs that TPTB are starting to quietly roll back some of their previous decisions, so there may be some hope here.
I expect hunger and famine on a large scale. The International Monetary Fund and the UN estimate that 20% of the global population, or nearly 1.6 billion people, will be in danger of malnutrition or famine simply because of the Ukrainian war. Toss in problems because of supply chain issues, input shortages and so on that were happening before the war and that number will go up. Some First World countries will experience hunger for the first time since WWII. The amount of hunger will be proportional to their ability to supply their own food using their own resources. Countries like the US and Canada should suffer the least, while countries like India, Chile and Japan will suffer the most. Some, like China, will hold things off for a while because they have stored various foodstuffs against just such an event, but those supplies won’t last forever. I would not want to be Xi when the farmers in the hinterboonies conclude that he has lost the Mandate of Heaven. Famine will stalk the entire Third World. We’ll get picture after video after story featuring starving people. Little will be done for them because little can be done for them. The Global Resetters will be dancing at Davos as they finally see the world’s population decline.
Remember the now thoroughly scrubbed Deagle Report that predicted startling population decreases? Yeah. There are a lot of roads to get there, and I think we’re going to see traffic jams on most if not all of them.
And So We Do…What, Exactly?
Well, you can pray that “They” aren’t total idiots, that peace breaks out and stability returns. Hey, it could happen. I don’t think it will, because this is all a part of “The Plan”. The Resetters want their damnable Reset, and they will stop at nothing until they get it or we get them.
Forewarned is forearmed. Whether I’m right or not, it seems obvious that hard times are a commin’. Use that knowledge to your advantage.
Keep your faith, no matter what brand you practice. I don’t believe God is going to abandon his loyal servants.
Realize that none of us or even all of us can have one whit of influence on anything other than our actions in our own local areas. You’ll simply have to do what you can within the area you can influence or control.
We’re going to be on our own like at no other time in history. Make your peace with the concept that the cavalry is not going to ride over the hill to save you. If you’re going to be saved, it’ll be because you saved yourself.
Keep calm and work on keeping your anxiety over these things in check. You need to keep up with the news, but don’t obsess on it. Set an amount of time for reading, listening or watching the news and stick to it. Watch those close to you and help them our when needed, and ask them to do the same for you. A clear head and calm mind will go a long way.
It probably goes without saying that you need to get those beans, bullets and band aids stocked up as deep as you can.
As best you can, pay off debt and save some cash. Concentrate on the debt first and saving second. Make sure you have as much cash on hand as possible to pay your taxes, bribes and whatnot, and if you can, some precious metals would be good insurance. Remember, Cypress looted the bank accounts of depositors to shore up their banks a while back, and the groundwork for our banks to do the same is already in place. Besides, it isn’t like your deposits are drawing any interest.
While there’s time and information is still easily available, build up your skills. The University of YouTube is a great source of information. Buy books on things like intensive gardening, raising livestock (start with chickens or maybe rabbits), austere medicine, older encyclopedias (say 1950 and earlier) and any skills you think you’re going to need. In this, buying used as much as possible will stretch the budget. I’ve had very good luck buying used books lately. If useful classes are available and in your budget, take classes.
Get in shape, and get any medical needs handled. Stock up on your meds as much as you can.
Build that community you’re going to need. People, at least some people, are starting to wake up and are realizing something is very wrong. Most of them have no idea what to do. Take time to give them advice if they ask. Even if you’ve only been prepping a short while, you can help them out. Hopefully you make some friends that way. Be sure to listen carefully to people wherever you happen to be-you might find some like-minded folks in the least likely places.
Work on communications, especially with the like-minded who are not physically near you. It can be something simple like CB or GMRS radio, or something advanced like amateur radio. If the grid and communications systems we’re used to stay working, use them, but have care in doing so. Encryption will be your friend.
Come up with some way to have some electrical power in case the grid becomes shaky or unavailable. I think a small solar setup is your best bet, but even one of the 100 watt Harbor Freight Thunderbolt systems and a cheap deep cycle battery are better than nothing. Try to have enough to keep your refrigerator running, a few lights lit and a radio or two playing. You’ll also need to charge battery operated gizmos like phones and flashlights.
I’d suggest sticking pretty close to home, especially if things look very unsettled. You don’t want to be caught on vacation, 500 miles from home, the day they decide to shut down the ATMs.
Develop Plan B, and C, and D and etc. And remember that flexibility in response will be a key trait that will separate the quick and the dead.
Do these things sound familiar? Yeah, it’s the list of stuff we should have all been doing for years. Time is probably really short, but do as much as you can. Everything you can accomplish now will help you out in the future.