A while back, all talk was about Civil War II (CWII), which many believed was right around the corner. I’m not much on making even a semi-detailed prediction on such things, although I still believe that we’re going to have one, barring divine intervention, if things keep going in the direction they’re heading.
Currently, most of the things I hear from various sources mention “low intensity conflict”. Low intensity conflict is often the step before an open civil war breaks out, but it isn’t necessarily so. US Army FM 100-20 defines low intensity conflict thusly:
Low intensity conflict is a political-military confrontation between contending states or groups below conventional war and above the routine, peaceful competition among states. It frequently involves protracted struggles of competing principles and ideologies. Low intensity conflict ranges from subversion to the use of armed force. It is waged by a combination of means, employing political, economic, informational, and military instruments. Low intensity conflicts are often localized, generally in the Third World, but contain regional and global security implications.US Army FM1-20
That could describe the recent Proud Boys vs. Antifa row in Portland. It could describe last year’s protests in multiple cities that led to the removal of various Confederate memorial statues, including the one in the nearby Bitty Burg. It’s “peaceful protests” by a number of leftist groups who coordinate quite well between themselves to burn down parts of various cities. I could keep going, but you get the picture.
On the right, things are considerably looser in terms of organization. Our tendency towards rugged individualism doesn’t lead us to join groups that might effectively oppose the Leftists on the streets. This may be a good thing, because it keeps the bigger fight from starting, but it may also make the leftists bolder in the number, size and shall we say, the intensity of their events.
For the time being, police in many areas are firmly on the sidelines, either because they’re ordered to be or because they’ve decided that it isn’t worth the beat down from the press and elected officials if they enforce the law. Damned if they do and society is damned if they don’t. In the above mentioned Proud Boys vs. Antifa, the police were extra firmly on the sidelines, and it led to Proud Boy member Tusitala “Tiny” Toese betting shot and his assailant escaping-by bus. The cops are also sidelined by manpower shortages, Covid precautions. and the “defund the police” crowd. It’s probably never a great time to be a cop, but this time in particular is made of suck and fail.
Not only leftists are emboldened to act, but so are your local, garden variety criminals. Every metro area has seen crime increase by double digits across the board. Hey, if you know the cops are going to be slow to respond or never show up at all, it takes a lot of the risk off the table. Of course, you have the possibility of meeting a guy like this or a guy like this.
Note the second “guy like this” used a rifle as he was facing 3 armed home invaders. You are armed all the time, right? Got a Modern Sporting Rifle close to hand?
I’ve spoken of a collapse being a process rather than an event. We are seeing that process as it’s moving forward toward…something. Maybe CWII is a part of the process. Low intensity conflict definitely is. It’s not possible to know where the process we see at this moment winds up. We may get something tossed into the mix by *President Biden’s latest friends, the Taliban. Or perhaps the AlertsUSA message that I just got about threats from Islamic State will come to pass.
In any event, you need to keep your eye on the ball. Curate a list of information resources. Continue to build or rebuild your food stores. Work on some skills-communications is usually a weak point I see with those who think they’re prepared. Know what’s going on in your area. And again, be armed all the time.
And keep your head on a swivel. Don’t forget to look up.